padmashree@earth:~$ whoami padmashree jha — full-stack builder, India padmashree@earth:~$ cat now.txt building : TxtUtils (txtutils.net) ← the side-hustle that became a product shipping : Smriti · CSES-Better · ChessCode · NDPify researching: weather-market models, options-selling regimes, local-first search stack : TypeScript · Next.js · React · Python · Rust (curious) · Firebase · Cloudflare padmashree@earth:~$ cat principles.txt 1. paper-trade before live-trade 2. fail closed, not open 3. if the backtest looks too good, the backtest is lying 4. free tiers are a design constraint, not an excuse padmashree@earth:~$ ▌
| Project | What it is | Stack |
|---|---|---|
| TxtUtils | My product: a growing toolbox of text utilities, built as a side-hustle. | Next.js · React |
| Smriti · live | Crowd-curated school photo archive that runs entirely on free tiers. Face matching proposes, students confirm. Firebase Auth + Firestore rules, Cloudflare Pages/KV. | Python · Firebase · Cloudflare |
| CSES-Better · live | High-performance competitive-programming platform and judge for the CSES Problem Set: live submission sync, Monaco IDE, testbench, archive mirror. | TypeScript · Vercel |
| ChessCode | Pipeline that turns a PGN (with variations) into a narrated chess-commentary video. | Python |
| NDPify | iOS app, live on the App Store. | Swift |
| Prabhananda Cup | Live football-tournament site with realtime scores on Firebase Realtime DB. | TypeScript · Firebase |
I build trading and prediction-market systems the slow, boring, honest way: paper first, risk caps always, live only after the evidence clears a gate. Most of this is private; here is how it works.
Trades Polymarket's daily "highest temperature" bucket markets for London, Seoul, NYC, Beijing and Miami.
flowchart LR
A["Open-Meteo ensemble<br/>100+ members<br/>GFS · ECMWF · ICON · GEM"] --> B["Student-t model<br/>σ scales with lead time"]
B --> C{"Edge filter<br/>cheap-YES leg<br/>filtered-NO leg"}
C --> D["Risk caps<br/>per-trade · per-city-day<br/>drawdown · Brier breaker"]
D --> E[("Paper ledger")]
E --> F{"Live gate<br/>50 trades · 14 days<br/>Brier beats market"}
F -->|pass| G["Live orders"]
F -->|fail| H["HALT latch"]
- Model-cycle aware. Runs 4×/day on GitHub Actions, timed to when NOAA/ECMWF forecasts actually publish, plus a 15-minute intraday position monitor that exits when observed temps breach a bucket.
- Ground truth = official settlement stations (ASOS via Iowa Mesonet), not a convenient proxy.
- Fails closed. Position, city-day and drawdown caps plus a rolling Brier-score circuit breaker trip a
HALTlatch. Live trading stays locked until paper results beat the market's own calibration. - Audits itself. I diagnose losing trades (tail thickness, same-day blindness to live station maxima) and treat every fix as a hypothesis to paper-test, not a tweak to ship.
Systematic NIFTY / BANKNIFTY / SENSEX options-selling research: VIX-regime routing, walk-forward validation, and a write-up of why the in-sample backtest lied.
Short-timeframe Polymarket crypto bot: Dockerized, scheduled services with a Telegram Mini App front end.
| Project | ★ | What I did |
|---|---|---|
| sherlock-project/sherlock | Contributor — hunt social accounts by username across networks | |
| yjid/kensaku | Contributor — local-first Rust search with OCR, semantic search and MCP agent access | |
| RKMV-CS/drama-soundboard | Contributor | |
| RKMV-CS/Class-X-Farewell | Contributor |
Also on the shelf: dev-meme (27★ memes API), Twitter automation bots (APOD, quotes), url-expander.
"If the backtest looks too good, the backtest is lying."